Rally on the coffee market was resumed after a sideways move that took place in June. COFFEE is up 7% and trades at the highest level since mid-February 2022. Reason behind the rally remain the same as the fundamental outlook remains unchanged. Supply of coffee remains limited, with recent data confirming slowdown in shipments from Vietnam, magnifying concerns. Vietnam coffee exports are down 11.4% YoY in January-June 2024 period. Country's crop is suffering from droughts that are also impacting impact for the harvest that begins in the Q4 2024. Meanwhile, International Coffee Organization estimates continue to point to an increase in global coffee consumption, creating perfect mix for price increases.
Taking a look at COFFEE at H1 interval, we can see that the price surged today and broke above the upper limit of the $220.00-237.50 trading range. Textbook target of the breakout from the range can be found in the $255 area, so just around 2% above current market price. Today's 7% surge marks the largest single day jump on the COFFEE market since late-November 2023.
Source: xStation5
Source: XTB Research
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