US CPI report for May was released today at 1:30 pm BST. While inflation data from the United States is always closely watched by market participants, today's report had additional gravity as two-day FOMC decision meeting begins today. Some saw today's data as a key to whether the FOMC will announce a hike or hold tomorrow at 7:00 pm BST. Market was expecting another slowdown in US CPI inflation.
Actual report turned out to be mixed - headline CPI slowed more than expected while core gauge slowed in-line with expectations. However, it should be said that expectations for core CPI were split between 5.2 and 5.3% YoY so the data can be seen as a slight beat.
Report can be seen as puzzling for FOMC but it also seems to be not hawkish enough to encourage US central bankers to deliver a rate hike tomorrow. Markets seem to share this view and reaction can be seen as dovish - USD dropped while gold and equity indices moved higher in a knee-jerk move.
US, CPI inflation for May
- Headline (annual): 4.0% YoY vs 4.1% YoY expected (4.9% YoY previously)
- Headline (monthly): 0.1% MoM vs 0.2% MoM expected (0.4% MoM previously)
- Core (annual): 5.3% YoY vs 5.3% YoY expected (5.5% YoY previously)
- Core (monthly): 0.4% MoM vs 0.4% MoM expected (0.4% MoM previously)
Headline US CPI continues to plunge while slowdown in core measure has slowed. Source: Macrobond, XTB
EURUSD spiked after release of mixed US CPI data for May. Source: xStation5
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