Today, EURUSD is trading around $1.1395-$1.1400 declining by a modest 0.10%. The pair surged 5.10% in April so far, its largest monthly gain since November 2022, reaching a yearly high of $1.1570 on April 21. However, it has since pulled back, consolidating below $1.15.
The eurozone faces headwinds, with Germany cutting its 2025 growth forecast to near-zero due to tariff uncertainty. The ECB is expected to continue rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 98% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in June and overall 59-basis-point cuts in total in 2025.
Simultaneously, the US dollar has weakened significantly, down 9.20% in 2025 against a basket of currencies, including a 5.10% drop versus the euro in April. However, in the last week USD remain in consolidation supported by slightly lower uncertainty around Trump’s tariff policies and easing US-China trade tensions. The Trump administration’s signals of de-escalating US-China trade tensions, including Beijing’s tariff exemptions on some US goods, which also boosted risk assets.
Source: xStation 5
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