After ECB hold both interest and deposit rates unchanged at 4.5 and 4% respectively, chair Christine Lagarde starts press conference.
ECB Lagarde
- The key ECB rates are now on restrictive levels and the bank hold it as long as it will be necessary
- Decisions are based on data, policy transmission and inflation outlook
- Eurozone economy is likely to have stagnated in Q4, but data shows that it can improve in 2024
- Some surveys also point to growth further ahead, however data signal weakness in the near term
- Growth may be higher as real wages support the demand in the economy
- The demand for labor is slowing, but the labor market is still robust
- Higher wages may be inflationary
- Future oil and gas prices as well as shortages may hit the eurozone, especially if global growth will slow
- It's still premature to talk about rate cuts
- Shipping costs are increasing
- Inflation rebound in December was weaker than expected (economic slowdown, negatively for euro)
- Inflation will probably fall later in 2024
- Rate cut in the summer is still possible
As for 2 PM GMT, there are no very hawkish comments from Lagarde and EURUSD loses almost 0.2%. Markets expect at least 1 rate cut, before the June 2024.
- Lagarde reaffirms that 2% inflation target is still a priority
- Slight decline in negotiating wages is favorable for ECB but this still an increase
- The bank doesn't expect second wave of inflation (profit unit will probably come down, and it's actually happening)
- The consensus says that it is too early to cut interest rates.
- ECB sees some stabilization in terms of wages
- The wage growth trajectory is good for inflation
- Christine Lagarde hopes for a decline in inflation and stable wage growth, which will allow for economic recovery
- Last PMI data from eurozone were quite positive for the economy, signalizing stabilization
- Lagarde also told that fiscal policy will be observed closely, signalling that ECB will have to react if eurozone member countries withdraw a fiscal support for energy prices
- Disinflation should be stronger to support ECB policy change
- ECB chair hopes that real wages growth and lowering price pressures will end in economic expansion after a period of slowdown
The market is already pricing in more cuts this year than before the meeting. EURUSD is around 1.0860 levels now.
Source: xStation5
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