Economic calendar: a busy macro day with US PCE, ADP, and GDP ahead 📄🔎

Today, we will receive several interesting macroeconomic reports from the U.S. These include the PCE inflation report, the preliminary U.S. GDP report for the first quarter of 2025, and the ADP report — the first labor market report for April. On Friday, we’ll get the next one, the NFP.

The most important report will likely be the GDP report. Forecasts expect a decline in annualized economic growth in the first quarter to +0.3% compared to 2.3% in the last quarter of 2024, along with an increase in the deflator to 3.1% q/q (previously 2.3% q/q).

Next in importance is the PCE report — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. The report will cover data for March and is expected to show a further decline in price pressure to 2.2% y/y and 2.6% y/y for the headline and core measures, respectively.

After the session closes, we’ll also get quarterly earnings reports from Microsoft, Robinhood, and Meta.

Detailed daily calendar:

08:55 AM BST, Germany - Employment Data for April:

• German Unemployment n.s.a.: previous 2.967M;
• German Unemployment: previous 2.922M;
• German Unemployment Rate: forecast 6.3%; previous 6.3%;
• German Unemployment Change: forecast 16K; previous 26K;

09:00 AM BST, Germany - Inflation Data for April:

• Saxony CPI: previous 2.5% YoY;
• North Rhine Westphalia CPI: previous 1.9% YoY;
• North Rhine Westphalia CPI: previous 0.3% MoM;
• Hesse CPI: previous 0.4% MoM;

09:00 AM BST, Germany - GDP data:

• German GDP (Q1): forecast 0.2% QoQ; previous -0.2% QoQ;
• German GDP (Q1): forecast -0.2% YoY; previous -0.2% YoY;

09:00 AM BST, Germany - Inflation Data for April:

• Brandenburg CPI: previous 0.4% MoM;
• Brandenburg CPI: previous 2.3% YoY;
• Bavaria CPI: previous 0.3% MoM;
• Bavaria CPI: previous 2.3% YoY;
• Baden Wuerttemberg CPI: previous 2.2% YoY;
• Baden Wuerttemberg CPI: previous 0.2% MoM;
• Saxony CPI: previous 0.6% MoM;
• Hesse CPI: previous 2.4% YoY;

10:00 AM BST, Euro Zone - GDP data:

• GDP (Q1): forecast 0.2% QoQ; previous 0.2% QoQ;
• GDP (Q1): forecast 1.0% YoY; previous 1.2% YoY;

01:00 PM BST, Germany - Inflation Data for April:

• German CPI: forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
• German CPI: forecast 2.0% YoY; previous 2.2% YoY;
• German HICP: forecast 2.1% YoY; previous 2.3% YoY;
• German HICP: forecast 0.4% MoM; previous 0.4% MoM;

01:15 PM BST, United States - Employment Data for April:

• ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: forecast 114K; previous 155K;

01:30 PM BST, United States - GDP data:

• GDP (Q1): forecast 0.2% QoQ; previous 2.4% QoQ;
• GDP Sales (Q1): previous 3.3%;
• GDP Price Index (Q1): forecast 3.1% QoQ; previous 2.3% QoQ;
• Real Consumer Spending (Q1): previous 4.0%;
• PCE Prices (Q1): previous 2.4%;

02:45 PM BST, United States - PMI Data for April:

• Chicago PMI: forecast 45.9; previous 47.6;

03:00 PM BST, United States - Inflation Data for March:

• PCE price index: forecast 0.0% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
• PCE Price index: forecast 2.2% YoY; previous 2.5% YoY;
• Core PCE Price Index: forecast 0.1% MoM; previous 0.4% MoM;
• Core PCE Price Index: forecast 2.6% YoY; previous 2.8% YoY;
• Personal Spending: forecast 0.6% MoM; previous 0.4% MoM;
• Personal Income: forecast 0.4% MoM; previous 0.8% MoM;
• Real Personal Consumption: previous 0.1% MoM;