Economic calendar: US retail sales in focus 🎯

• US Retail Sales
• June Inflation Report from Canada

Today's macro calendar is relatively light for European market investors. However, in the second half of the day, investors interested in the American market will have the opportunity to review important reports from the USA and Canada.

The key event of the day is the US retail sales report, which will be published at 14:30. Analysts expect a further weakening of the consumer in the USA. Monthly sales are expected to be -0.3% for the main measure, and sales excluding motor vehicles are expected to remain unchanged at 0.0%. Unless the data shows a significant downturn below expectations, stabilization in the consumer sector is rather desirable by the Fed after an astonishingly strong market over the past three years.

At the same time, we will also see the CPI report from Canada for June. The consensus indicates a slight decline in annual inflation to 2.8% year-over-year compared to 2.9% year-over-year in the previous month. This will be the last CPI reading before the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on July 24, 2024.

Detailed schedule of the day:

10:00 AM BST, Germany - German ZEW for July:

• Current Conditions: forecast -74.3; previous -73.8;
• Economic Sentiment: forecast 41.2; previous 47.5;

01:15 PM BST, Canada - Housing Starts for Jun:

• forecast 255.0K; previous 264.5K;

01:30 PM BST, Canada - Inflation Data for Jun:

• Trimmed CPI: forecast 2.8% YoY; previous 2.9% YoY;
• Median CPI: forecast 2.7% YoY; previous 2.8% YoY;
• CPI: previous 2.9% YoY;
• CPI: forecast 0.1% MoM; previous 0.6% MoM;
• Core CPI: previous 1.8% YoY;
• Core CPI: previous 0.6% MoM;

01:30 PM BST, United States - Retail Sales Data for Jun:

• Import Price Index: forecast 0.2% MoM; previous -0.4% MoM;
• Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos: previous 0.1% MoM;
• Retail Sales: forecast -0.3% MoM; previous 0.1% MoM;
• Core Retail Sales: forecast 0.1% MoM; previous -0.1% MoM;