New GDP forecasts from IMF

International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a new set of growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 today at 2:00 pm BST. Release saw a number of upward revisions for world's largest economies, especially for 2023. While the Chinese economy is still expected to grow by 5.2%, as was signaled in the April forecast, other major economies are expected to see a slightly higher pace of growth this year than the IMF expected three months ago.

Germany is the only G7 country which is still expected to experience a contraction this year. Back in April, IMF also saw the UK economy contracting but the UK forecast was revised from -0.3 to +0.4% in July!

Some interesting comments were made by IMF Chief Economist Gourinchas in relation to the release. Namely, Gourinchas said that the IMF expects monetary tightening to continue until late-2024 or even into 2025! While those comments and new forecasts are interesting, they barely had any impact on the markets.

2023 GDP forecast

• Global: 3.0% vs 2.8% previously
• United States: 1.8% vs 1.6% previously
• China: 5.2% vs 5.2% previously
• Japan: 1.4% vs 1.3% previously
• India: 6.1% vs 5.9% previously
• Euro area: 0.8% vs 0.7% previously
• Germany: -0.3% vs -0.1% previously
• United Kingdom: 0.4% vs -0.3% previously

2024 GDP forecast

• Global: 3.0% vs 3.0% previously
• United States: 1.0% vs 1.1% previously
• China: 4.5% vs 4.5% previously
• Japan: 1.0% vs 1.0% previously
• India: 6.3% vs 6.3% previously
• Euro area: 1.5% vs 1.4% previously
• United Kingdom: 1.0% vs 1.0% previously