💲 USD gains ahead of US retail sales data

US retail sales data for August is a key macro release of the day. Report will be released at 1:30 pm BST and is expected to show no growth (0.0% MoM) in headline sales or in core measures, like sales excluding autos. If expectations are confirmed, it would mark the second month in a row when headline retail sales remained flat month-over-month. While not a disaster, it would be a warning signal for the Fed that the US consumer is weakening with rising prices being the prime reason. On one hand it would show that there is an urgent need to bring down inflation. On the other hand, rising interest rates would further deteriorate consumer position as rising mortgages would further limit ability to spend. Apart from retail sales, NY Empire index for August and weekly jobless claims report will also be released at 1:30 pm BST but those can be considered second-tier releases.

US data releases at 1:30 pm BST

- Retail sales for August

• Headline. Expected: 0.0% MoM. Previous: 0.0% MoM

• Ex-autos. Expected: 0.4% MoM. Previous: 0.4% MoM

- New York Empire state index for September. Expected: -14. Previous: -31.3

- Jobless claims report. Expected: 225k. Previous: 222k

The US dollar is one of the best performing G10 currencies around an hour ahead of the US data release, lagging only behind the Swiss franc. US dollar index (USDIDX) continues to trade above the 200-hour moving average (purple line) following a strong post-CPI upward move. However, the index failed to extend the move towards recent highs in the 110.75 area and has been trading sideways in a 109.40-109.90 range since. 

Source: xStation5