NATGAS jumps 4% after new weather forecasts

US natural gas prices (NATGAS) launch new week's trading with a big bullish price gap and continued to gain during the Asia-Pacifc session. Gains were fueled by new set of weather forecasts from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The most recent forecast, issued on Sunday afternoon, suggests above-average temperatures in a smaller part of US mainland than suggested by forecasts issued before the weekend. Above-average temperatures are still expected to remain in some key heating states but, overall, the heat wave seems to be moving eastwards and if this situation continues, below-average temperatures may be expected in the majority on mainland US, what should have a positive impact on natural gas demand in the final weeks of heating season.

New weather forecasts (left map) show heat wave receding to the east and being followed by a below-average temperatures. Source: NOAA

Taking a look at NATGAS chart at H1 interval, we can see that daily highs were reached near $1.83 per MMBTu. However, bulls failed to hold onto those gains and part of the move higher was erased. Price broke back below the $1.78 price zone as well as the 50-hour moving average (green line), and is now testing $1.70 area. Nevertheless, even after this pullback NATGAS is trading around 4% higher on the day.

Source: xStation5