- Initially, ECB members showed no inclination to raise rates in July
- However, a built consensus eventually allowed for a 25 basis point increase
- Too much focus on September, according to ECB members
- It was indicated that September projections may show a significant drop in inflation to the target within the forecast period, which could mean that a September increase won't be necessary
- Significant concerns about stagflation
- Core inflation remains too high
- The risk of a wage spiral is rather low
Clearly dovish minutes cast doubt on a September rate hike, even with a significant surprise of higher inflation. Nevertheless, as can be seen, there is a good chance that September projections will indicate inflation within the target in the forecast period, which won't justify another cut. EURUSD is already testing the vicinity of 1.0850.

ปฏิทินเศรษฐกิจ
สรุปข่าวเช้า
BREAKING: คู่เงิน GBP/USD ปรับตัวขึ้นเล็กน้อยหลังเผยแพร่ ข้อมูล GDP ของสหราชอาณาจักร
สรุปข่าวเช้า