- Initially, ECB members showed no inclination to raise rates in July
- However, a built consensus eventually allowed for a 25 basis point increase
- Too much focus on September, according to ECB members
- It was indicated that September projections may show a significant drop in inflation to the target within the forecast period, which could mean that a September increase won't be necessary
- Significant concerns about stagflation
- Core inflation remains too high
- The risk of a wage spiral is rather low
Clearly dovish minutes cast doubt on a September rate hike, even with a significant surprise of higher inflation. Nevertheless, as can be seen, there is a good chance that September projections will indicate inflation within the target in the forecast period, which won't justify another cut. EURUSD is already testing the vicinity of 1.0850.
ข่าวเด่นวันนี้: ริ่มต้นสัปดาห์การซื้อขายใหม่ด้วย “สีเขียว” 📈
ข่าวเด่น: เงินเฟ้อฝั่งผู้ผลิต (PPI) ของเยอรมนีออกมาต่ำกว่าคาด
ปฏิทินเศรษฐกิจ: เปิดสัปดาห์ด้วยความเงียบ ก่อนเหตุการณ์ใหญ่ต่อเนื่อง
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