BREAKING: EURUSD gains after hotter US CPI data 🎯

01:30 PM BST, United States - Inflation Data for September:

• Core CPI: actual 0.3% MoM; forecast 0.2% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
• Core CPI: actual 3.3% YoY; forecast 3.2% YoY; previous 3.2% YoY;
• CPI: actual 2.4% YoY; forecast 2.3% YoY; previous 2.5% YoY;
• CPI: actual 0.3% MoM; forecast 0.1% MoM; previous 0.2% MoM;

September CPI 2024 rose by 0.3%, beating Augusts's increase, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Annually, the CPI increased by 2.4%, higher than expected. Significant monthly changes included a 1.77% rise in the shelter index and a 0.53% decrease in the energy index.

Excluding food and energy, the index rose 0.3%. Over the past 12 months, the index less food and energy climbed 3.3%, while energy and food indices moved by -0.42% and +0.31% respectively. The odds for lower rate cut have increased by 6 percentage points after the news to 86.3% probability. There is now only 13.7% chance of 50 basis points cut. This will most likely favor reducing the pace of monetary policy easing.

01:30 PM BST, United States - Employment Data:

• Initial Jobless Claims (October 5): actual 258k; forecast 230k; previous 225k;
• Continuing Claims (September 28): actual 1861k; forecast 1830k; previous 1826k;

Initial jobless claims rose to 258,000, exceeding the estimated 230,000 and the prior week's 225,000. The 4-week moving average increased to 231,000. Continuing claims also increased to 1.861 million, above the 1.830 million estimate and the revised prior week figure of 1.819 million. The 4-week moving average for continuing claims slightly increased to 1.832 million. Michigan saw the largest increase in initial claims, while Georgia had the largest decrease. Notably, the data doesn't appear to reflect significant impacts from recent weather events or strikes, as the states with the largest increases in claims are not primarily those affected by these issues.

The EURUSD is highly volatile after the data. In first reaction the dollar has strengthtend only to start losing soon after. Now after market particicpant were able to analyze the data it became clear that FED will decrease the pace of rate cuts.

Source: xStation