Cocoa drops sharply since early September

The price of cocoa has been losing heavily since the beginning of September. This month alone, the price has fallen by about 8%, and the current situation resembles a similar situation that occurred after two previous sizable rollovers. After the rollovers, the price rose from $1,500 to about $2,000 per contract, and then there was a clear price drop (from 30 to 38%) and a test of the $7,000 level. Currently, the price is testing this zone, while if the price were to fall by 30% from the local high, then we could count on a test of the 78.6 retracement of the last upward wave at the level of about $5600.

Source: xStation5

Looking at the 5-year and long-term seasonality, we are theoretically entering a period of decline for cocoa, which is related to the imminent start of the harvest season in October. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB