Economic calendar: Fed decision and ADP report from the USA in focus 📌

Today's macro calendar is focused on retail sales data from the first part of the day and macro publications from the USA in the second part.

Retail sales in Germany, Switzerland, and Spain were worse than expected, with only Spain showing a positive annual dynamic. Data from Germany revealed a continued significant negative dynamic in both annual and monthly terms, confirming the weakness of the German economy and consumer. In the second part of the day, investors' attention will shift across the ocean to the USA. First, we will learn about the labor market report. Investors are expecting further stabilization in this sector, which could support hopes for faster interest rate cuts.

The key event of the day will, of course, be the Fed's decision and Jerome Powell's speech at 7:30 pm GMT. The market will be looking for confirmation of a potential path for interest rate cuts in 2024.

Detailed calendar:

07:00 AM GMT, Germany - Retail Sales Data for December (Published):

• German Import Price Index: actual -8.5% YoY; forecast -8.2% YoY; previous -9.0% YoY;
• German Retail Sales: actual -1.7% YoY; previous -1.7% YoY;
• German Retail Sales: actual -1.6% MoM; forecast 0.7% MoM; previous -0.8% MoM;

07:45 AM GMT, France - Inflation Data for December (Published):

• French PPI: actual 0.1% MoM; previous 2.3% MoM;
• French CPI: actual 3.1% YoY; previous 3.7% YoY;
• French HICP: actual -0.2% MoM; forecast -0.2% MoM; previous 0.1% MoM;
• French CPI: actual -0.2% MoM; forecast 0.0% MoM; previous 0.1% MoM;
• French HICP: actual 3.4% YoY; forecast 3.3% YoY; previous 4.1% YoY;

01:00 PM GMT, Germany - Inflation Data for January:

• German HICP: forecast -0.1% MoM; previous 0.2% MoM;
• German HICP: forecast 3.2% YoY; previous 3.8% YoY;
• German CPI: forecast 0.2% MoM; previous 0.1% MoM;
• German CPI: forecast 3.0% YoY; previous 3.7% YoY;

01:15 PM GMT, United States - Employment Data for January:

• ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: forecast 145K; previous 164K;

03:30 PM GMT, United States - EIA Data:

• EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: forecast -0.425M; previous -1.417M;
• Gasoline Inventories: forecast 1.483M; previous 4.913M;
• Crude Oil Inventories: forecast -0.217M; previous -9.233M;

07:00 PM GMT, United States - FOMC Statement

07:00 PM GMT, United States - Fed Interest Rate Decision for December:

• forecast 5.50%; previous 5.50%;

07:30 PM GMT, United States - FOMC Press Conference