NY FED survey points to higher inflation in medium term

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Data Center today released the April 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations. According to the report, expectations for the growth of prices of goods and services in the economy increased in the short and medium term. What's more, expectations for home prices reached their highest values since July 2022. Along with the rise in prices, respondents estimate an increase in their spending. 

Below are the details of the Fed's report: 

• Inflation forecasts for the next 12 months: 3.3% y/y vs. March's reading of 3.0% y/y
• Inflation forecast for the next 3 years: 2.8% y/y vs. March reading of 2.9% y/y
• Inflation forecast for the next 5 years: 2.8% y/y vs. March reading of 2.6% y/y
• Gas price expectations rose to 4.8% vs. March reading of 4.5% y/y
• Food price expectations rose to 5.3% vs. March reading of 5.1% y/y
• Expectations for medical care prices rose to 8.7% from March's reading of 8.1% y/y
• Education price expectations rose to 9.0% against a March reading of 7.5% y/y
• Rent expectations rose to 9.1% vs. March's reading of 8.7% y/y
• Median perceived earnings growth one year ahead fell 0.1 percentage points to 2.7% y/y
• The average perceived probability of finding a job if one loses one's current job fell for the fourth consecutive month, to 50.9% from 51.2% in March
• Median expected household income growth fell 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%
• The average perceived probability of finding a job if one loses one's current employment fell for the fourth consecutive month, to 50.9% from 51.2% in March
• Median expected household income growth fell 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%. 

In the medium term, Americans are concerned about high prices combined with worse wage growth. However, fear of possible layoffs remains low and April even decreased to 15% (probability of job loss). The probability of voluntary layoffs also fell, but it remains above the value of involuntary layoffs, which may indicate that the US is still experiencing a worker's market.