State-level readings set stage for upside surprise in German inflation data

A key European macro reading of the day is the release of the flash German CPI report for September, scheduled for 1:00 pm BST. Market consensus points to an acceleration from 7.9% to 9.5% YoY. However, there is a big chance that the actual report will surprise to the upside given inflation data from German states released today:

• North Rhine Westphalia: 10.1% YoY vs 8.1% YoY in August

• Baden Wuerttemberg: 9.5% YoY vs 7.3% YoY in August

• Hesse: 9.4% YoY vs 8.0% YoY in August

• Bavaria: 10.8% YoY vs 8.4% YoY in August

• Brandenburg: 9.9% YoY vs 7.9% YoY in August

• Saxony: 9.2% YoY vs 7.3% YoY in August

As one can see, major acceleration was noted in almost all states with the majority of those printing readings of 9.5% or higher. EUR gained this morning but for different reasons. A number of ECB members that spoke today supported a 50 bp or 75 bp rate hike for the next meeting with Olli Rehn even saying that rates in EMU should get to neutral levels by Christmas. 

EURUSD started to recover on hawkish comments from ECB members. German inflation data at 1:00 pm BST may trigger a volatility jump on the EUR market. Source: xStation5